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Capital Market Assumptions
Definition
Capital market assumptions (CMAs) are the forward-looking estimates of return, risk, and correlation for each asset class in a portfolio. They are typically developed by investment consultants, OCIO firms, or internal investment staff using a combination of historical data, valuation-based models (e.g., CAPE ratios for equity returns), and economic forecasting. CMAs are inherently uncertain — they represent best estimates, not predictions — which is why Monte Carlo simulation that samples around these central estimates is more appropriate than deterministic projections that treat them as fixed.
In the Context of Endowment Management
Most foundations rely on their investment consultant or OCIO for CMAs. The quality, frequency of update, and transparency of these assumptions varies significantly. EndowCast allows users to input their own CMAs — enabling direct comparison of the consultant's assumptions against alternative scenarios — and to quantify how sensitive simulation outputs are to changes in the input assumptions.